‘Tis the season, as a bearded man oft likes to say. Time to bring 2024 to (or toward) a close and think about what 2025 will bring. We’ve had no shortage of impactful events in 2024, leaving geopolitics, US politics, and (mostly) stock markets out of the discussion. As this publication focuses on the world of IT, we will keep the scope narrow while also looking broadly enough to consider matters that affect IT at scale.
A year ago, we looked at what 2024 might look like. We got some right and some wrong, akin to what your favorite weatherperson might do. We felt the need to repeat a few because they’re still prevalent.
1. AI will devour enterprise resources by Q3 2025
That large sucking sound of artificial intelligence isn’t just consuming resources—it’s fundamentally reshaping the technological ecosystem with the subtlety of a black hole consuming everything in its gravitational path. The AI gold rush will continue to devour GPUs, energy, and human capital with an insatiability we’ve never imagined.
But here’s the real strategic inflection point: we’re moving beyond mere technology adoption into a more nuanced terrain of AI value stratification. Think of it like a sophisticated restaurant menu, where not every dish is worth the price. Top-tier engineers won’t just be chasing money—they’ll be hunting for meaningful implementation strategies that transform potential into tangible organizational capability.
The AI hype cycle remains a tension-filled boxing match between promise and performance. We predict and demand the emergence of what we’re calling the “AI Value Amplification Index”—a ruthlessly pragmatic framework for measuring genuine technological impact versus marketing hyperbole. Organizations that develop this discernment will separate themselves from those drowning in algorithmic snake oil.
Critical milestones to watch:
- Granular ROI measurements that go beyond surface-level efficiency
- Emergence of specialized AI implementation consulting
- Increasing board-level scrutiny of AI investment strategies
The vortex will have casualties, yes. Entire IT subsectors will be disrupted, budgets will be cannibalized, and more than a few tech executives will discover their AI strategy is more PowerPoint than power tool. But for those who navigate this landscape with surgical precision, the rewards will be transformative.
2. Post-quantum encryption will become mission-critical by 2027
Post-quantum cryptography isn’t just the next tech upgrade—it’s a digital survival strategy. Between 2026 and 2031, current encryption will start looking like a rotary phone in a 5G world. As quantum computing transforms from theoretical threat to practical reality, organizations face a critical migration path that’s part technological evolution, part strategic warfare.
The market won’t just adopt post-quantum encryption; it will demand it with the urgency of a CISO watching their vulnerability dashboard turn blood-red. New cryptographic solutions will emerge rapidly, driven by an existential imperative: dramatically reduce enterprise vulnerabilities before they become catastrophic breaches.
Think of it like upgrading from wooden castle walls to reinforced titanium—those who delay will find themselves digitally exposed, facing potential ransom demands, PR nightmares, and reputational damage that no cybersecurity insurance can fully mitigate. The encryption revolution is coming, and it’s bringing quantum-grade padlocks.
3. Geopolitical tensions will fragment global IT infrastructure
As we said last year, geopolitical instability will get worse, continue to play out, and cause as yet-unseen consequences. Whether that is oil shocks, risk premiums, countries slipping away, radiation, or wars escalating, all of this will grab headlines and, at some point, become more difficult and disruptive. How will this affect IT? In several ways, sovereigns will look to develop their own systems and resilience, continue de-coupling, and continue the development and evolution of wholly unrelated technologies and systems. How this will affect interoperability remains to be seen; suffice to say, it’s likely not to be pretty.
4. Cloud-Native will replace 40% of traditional VMware deployments
One of the beauties (and costs) of capitalism is that dramatic price increases to existing technologies drives innovation and adaptation. With average price increases of 325% (and some substantially higher), and three-year lock-ins, both the buy side and the sell side of this market segment will scream for alternatives, and they will show up. The coming year will see legacy VMware users reevaluate their options, with many pivoting to cloud-native approaches for greater flexibility. This shift for smaller organizations is already a no-brainer, but the real coup will be in federal and large enterprise entities.
While there are no technologies capable of making the transition as simple as checking a box (due to patent infringement and scary men in black suits showing up at your office), rethinking the convoluted Gordian knot of interconnectedness into more straightforward implementations with modern approaches is the clear and effective way forward.
5. IT talent shortage will force radical workforce reimagination
The IT talent landscape is about to experience a tectonic shift that makes previous skill shortages look like a gentle tremor. The quantum of offshore talent is contracting faster than a startup’s runway during a funding drought, forcing organizations into a high-stakes game of technological musical chairs. Onshore talent acquisition will become a bloodsport, with compensation packages climbing like hyperscaler stock prices and the true cost of technical expertise revealing itself in brutal economic clarity.
This talent crunch isn’t just a staffing problem—it’s an existential forcing function for IT infrastructure reimagination. While AI won’t magically replace human expertise overnight, it will accelerate a Darwinian evolution in how technical teams are structured, skills are developed, and complex systems are conceived. Organizations will be compelled to architect more resilient, self-documenting, and intrinsically manageable infrastructure, transforming a potential crisis into a strategic inflection point for technological innovation. The silver lining? Those who adapt fastest will emerge not just surviving but fundamentally redesigning the future of enterprise technology.
6. Consumption-based cloud models will trigger enterprise cost rebellions
Consumption-based cloud pricing has become the technological equivalent of a casino where the house always wins—and enterprises are finally realizing they’re perpetually playing against a stacked deck. What began as a revolutionary model of technical flexibility has metastasized into a labyrinthine pricing nightmare, where hyperscalers have transformed pay-as-you-go into pay-and-pray. Hidden costs now lurk in every computational corner like digital gremlins, transforming what seemed like an elegant solution into a budgetary black hole that would make even the most seasoned CFO break into a cold sweat.
In 2025, we’ll witness the great cloud pricing rebellion—a strategic uprising where enterprises stop treating cloud consumption like an all-you-can-eat buffet and start demanding à la carte precision (this is already starting to gain momentum with the advent of FOCUS). Forward-thinking organizations will develop sophisticated cost governance frameworks, implementing granular consumption tracking, predictive modeling, and ruthless optimization strategies. The hyperscalers’ drip-pricing model will meet its match in a new generation of technologists who view cloud economics not as a convenient abstraction but as a critical strategic battleground where every computational penny represents potential competitive advantage or existential waste. And that battle will be mounted across clouds and private data centers alike.
7. Legacy system rewrites will accelerate as expertise retires
Legacy systems like Solaris on Power are nearing obsolescence, and it’s not just the hardware showing its age. The Greybeards who’ve kept these platforms alive are starting to retire, taking their hard-won expertise—and perhaps their fishing rods—to far-off destinations. This looming knowledge gap is accelerating the push to re-engineer legacy applications, paving the way for modern, cloud-native solutions better suited to today’s IT demands. We think a new field of science will be introduced soon - “technological archaeology” - the critical process of extracting institutional knowledge before those systems are decommissioned. Otherwise, we’ll be on a thousand-year search for a modern Rosetta Stone within the oceans of memes and TikTok videos, but to no avail.
8. Kubernetes dominance will fracture in favor of targeted solutions
Shocking news - One size does not fit all. While Kubernetes has become the gold standard for managing containerized workloads, its universal adoption has sometimes led to overly complex and unwieldy architectures. In 2025, we expect a shift toward more intentional and tailored cloud-native solutions, where Kubernetes is deployed only when it truly fits the need. Organizations will explore alternative frameworks and approaches that simplify operations for smaller or niche workloads, balancing flexibility with practicality to avoid unnecessary overhead.
The contrast here (or maybe in contradiction to this prediction) will be in organizations with the expertise to thoughtfully design platforms suited to adapt to the changes needed by the demands of the organization and their customers. I’m looking at you, Platform Engineering leaders. Continuing to abstract away the pieces your developers and designers should never need to touch is paramount. It’s not about eliminating complexity but about strategically managing and hiding that complexity behind intuitive, context-aware interfaces that anticipate the technological needs of modern, rapidly evolving applications. You may actually need Kubernetes for this approach.
9. Shared services will collapse under their own complexity
Collaborative tools like Dropbox and Google Drive fundamentally transformed workplace productivity when they emerged, but they’ve reached a critical inflection point. The current generation of shared services has stretched far beyond their original design parameters, creating increasingly complex ecosystems that compromise user experience and operational efficiency. What began as straightforward file-sharing platforms have accumulated feature layers that often obscure rather than enhance core functionality.
The 2025 trajectory points toward more intentional, workflow-integrated solutions that prioritize user experience and contextual collaboration. We anticipate a market shift toward tools that are less about universal feature sets and more about precise, adaptive collaboration environments. These emerging platforms will likely focus on seamless integration, context-aware sharing, and intuitive design that aligns more closely with how modern teams actually work—reducing cognitive overhead and improving genuine productivity. The winning solutions will be those that understand collaboration is fundamentally about reducing friction, not adding complexity.
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